We still have a long baseball off-season to go so it’s a good time to see what else may be on the Red Sox Hot Stove League pitching shopping list.
Don’t think for a minute that just because Boston added three starters at the Winter Meetings the team is done with its starting rotation.
There is still a glaring hole at the top of the staff – despite Red Sox claims about how a #1 starter could emerge from this group.
Max Scherzer is after bigger money than Jon Lester and James Shields is older than Lester – so you can forget about them.
Phillies lefty Cole Hamels would make a good addition to the Sox staff – but no one is quite sure what Philadelphia is up to – are they “all in” in selling? Are they realistic in their asking prices?
Boston has the young talent to make a Hamels play. But any deal would be very expensive.
Another top pitcher said to be on the market is Jordan Zimmermann of the Nationals.
Like Hamels, the acquisition cost would be high but unlike Hamels, Zimmermann is a free agent to be after the 2015 season.
Sox additions Rick Porcello and Justin Masterson have the same status as Zimmermann – and 2015 free agent pitching class is top notch.
It could be the Sox strategy to buy time during the 2015 season and go heavy for pitching next winter.
Lefty reliever Andrew Miller was another close but no cigar free agent play.
Adding a left-handed reliever to the bullpen is still on Boston’s to-do list.
Craig Breslow is an option to return – but is not the same imposing figure as Miller.
Two other lefty free agent options from the injury scrap-heap are Tom Gorzelanny and Sean Burnett, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery but may contribute in the second half of next season.
Candidates to fill out the right side of the bullpen include Burke Badenhop and hard-thrower, but risky injury-wise Brandon Morrow.
The Sox also have some prospect candidates for the bullpen – with Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes in the best position to make the club as relievers.
Knuckleballer Steven Wright could also fill that role.
And look for Boston to be on the prowl for low-cost arms – like their addition of right-handed reliever Zeke Spruill from Arizona.
Most relievers have up and down careers – and teams try to strike gold on their upside years.
Down in the Zone
There were a couple of interesting recent articles that Boston’s haul of Porcello, Masterson and Wade Miley was part of an effort to cash in on the MLB trend of the strike zone expanding toward the bottom of the zone.
All three pitchers – along with fellow Sox starter Joe Kelly – work the bottom third of the strike zone and below well.
And offensive free agent additions Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez are strong low ball hitters.
Well, the week did not exactly unfold like the Red Sox wanted it to – or did it?
Boston made a valiant effort to bring back free agent pitcher Jon Lester – or did they?
Never mind, the team probably blew it by starting Lester off with a low-ball $70 million, four year offer during Spring Training.
Given the team’s public position of not going long term for pitcher past 30 years of age, a reasonable hunch could be the Red Sox would make a respectable public showing in trying to sign Lester but not bring to the table a bid that could win.
Of course, Lester may have been ready for a “new challenge” (driving the Cubs to a World Series) like Pablo Sandoval was in electing to move to Boston.
We probably will never know the full story – but one thing we do know: Lester will always have a special place in the hearts of Red Sox fans for his great service to the team.
Red Sox GM Ben Cherington never ceases to impress with his thinking.
Immediately after the Lester decision, Cherington sprang into action (which kind of feeds into the thought the Red Sox weren’t really counting on signing Lester).
Let’s look at the starters that Cherington added to the team.
Boston acquired righty Rick Porcello from the Tigers for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes (and pitchers Alex Wilson and Gabe Speier).
On a very good – not great – Detroit team, Porcello was the fourth or fifth starter.
On the Red Sox – barring acquisition of a front-line starter – Porcello will be the #1 or #2 starter.
The pluses – Porcello is young (26 during next season), an innings eater (204 innings last season).
The questions – last season was Porcello’s best year. Was it an aberration or a sign he is stepping up as a starter? And Porcello is a free-agent-to-be after the 2015 season. Is he just a one year rental?
The Sox added Wade Miley for a couple of youngish pitchers (power arms from the Arizona perspective) who have yet to emerge (Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster) and low-minor infielder (Raymel Flores).
Miley is a little harder to decipher (than Porcello) because Arizona stunk last season.
But he profiles similar to Porcello – a middle of the rotation starter.
It’s interesting to hear the Red Sox spin – yes, focus on Porcello’s last season but for Miley, look more at the full body of work.
Bringing in Justin Masterson as a free agent starter is a wild card – could be a plus or a wash out.
Masterson was a disaster last season – being chalked up to an assortment of injuries.
But he had some good – not great – seasons in Cleveland.
The Red Sox will not know what they got in Masterson until May or June.
The good news – he is signed to a one-year deal.
The question – right now, Boston is counting on Masterson to be in its rotation – and based on last season, that’s a gamble.
What do you think of the current make-up of the Red Sox rotation?
We all know re-signing Jon Lester is priority #1 for the Red Sox.
Let’s look at some other things on Boston’s plate as the MLB Winter Meetings kick-off.
If Lester signs elsewhere – Max Scherzer should be on the target list.
The reported price-tag for Lester is high, but the Scherzer price will be higher – most likely approaching Clayton Kershaw range ($30 million/year).
The Red Sox can afford it – and they have the need.
Grabbing a #2 Starter
Of course, adding Lester or Scherzer won’t be enough to rebuild the Red Sox rotation.
The team had the MLB’s fourth worst ERA in the period after the 2014 All Star break – when Boston mostly competed without Lester and John Lackey, writes Buster Olney (insider required).
Nick Cafardo provided a laundry list of pitching acquisition candidates for the Red Sox.
Pitchers to watch:
- Cole Hamels, Philadelphia – Can the Sox or another team meet the Phillies asking price?
- Mike Leake, Cincinnati – The Reds have four free agents to be (after the 2015 season) in their rotation. They may look to thin out their potential losses.
- Tyson Ross, San Diego (not on the Cafardo list) – Based on the team’s pursuit of Pablo Sandoval and Yasmany Tomas, the Padres are looking to make a splash this off-season. Ross would be a good addition to the Sox rotation.
Thinning out the Outfield
On paper, the Red Sox have too many outfielders.
With hitting on the wish list of a number of teams, Boston will be checking the trade market for Yoenis Cespedes.
Cespedes has power – which is in much demand. So he could help land a #2 starter.
This trade market survey may also include testing the waters for Shane Victorino and Allen Craig.
What either player can bring back in a deal now is an open question – given Victorino missed most of last season due to injury and Craig’s offensive ability vanished (maybe because of ankle problems).
Teams could want to see them on the field during Spring Training before making a trade commitment.
Due to a strong farm system, Boston has much more to offer in deals that excess outfielders.
Pete Abraham provided a well-done analysis of the prospects the Red Sox may be willing to move.
Three to watch as part of potential trades:
- Deven Marrero, shortstop – Teams looking to take the Brandon Crawford defense first model could be interested in Marrero – a player close to major league ready.
- Henry Owens, pitcher – If the Red Sox want to go big in acquiring a starter (like Hamels), they will need to offer a top pitching prospect in return. The good news is Boston has depth among lefty starter prospects, with Brian Johnson and Eduardo Rodriguez.
- Bryce Brentz, outfielder – Brentz is more a complementary piece than a centerpiece. But with power at a premium, he could be a valuable addition to a trade package.
Looking Longer Term
Beyond the Winter Meetings, developing the team’s next #1 starter needs some work.
The Lester free agent cost demonstrates the value in player development.
Lester is the last purebred Red Sox ace since Roger Clemens, writes Michael Silverman.
This caliber of player is hard to find – and it’s not clear whether Boston has that player in their farm system now.
Looks like free agent pitcher Jon Lester is headed to the home stretch in making his decision on where he wants to play – with the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants all reported to be in the running.
Lester is primed to get huge money ($130-140 million or more) in a long-term deal (likely six years, with maybe seven being a difference maker).
And the teams competing at this stage are all financial titans (with possibly the Giants lagging a little in this category).
Looks like the Red Sox have been working hard to overcome their spring blunder of low-balling Lester in their initial offer.
For instance, Sox owner John Henry is reported to have made a second trip to Lester’s home in the Atlanta area to demonstrate the team’s interest.
Joel Sherman reports Lester felt disrespected by Sox ownership with the team’s initial offer.
Sherman likens Red Sox management to Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert who had to rebuild his relationship with LeBron James to clear a path back for James to Cleveland.
Publicly calling for Boston to re-sign Lester, DH David Ortiz said it is “time for us to step up, man up, and try to make the guy happy.”
Sox legend Pedro Martinez joined in, calling Lester “the perfect guy” to lead the staff.
Let’s close the look at Boston and Lester with Tony Massarotti, who writes – signing Lester or not will not be the measure in determining whether Boston will be primed for comeback in 2015.
Rather, it is addressing the glaring holes they have with both the #1 and #2 starter (John Lackey) spots.
That said, bringing back Lester would get the Red Sox half way home on this quest.
The Dodgers are reported to have thrown their hat into the Lester sweepstakes.
Los Angeles has practically unlimited financial resources (thanks to an $8 billion TV contract).
After disappointing once again in the playoffs, the Dodgers may see Lester as a missing piece to championship glory – not to mention insurance should Zack Greinke opt out of his contract after the 2015 season.
The Cubs are going all out for Lester.
Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, of course, has long ties to Lester and knows he faces stiff competition in landing Lester.
Says Epstein, “Free agency is not for the faint of heart.”
Chicago has just added Lester former teammate and friend Ryan Dempster to their front office – which may help their chances a little.
And the Giants probably feel they owe the Red Sox one as payback for Boston signing Pablo Sandoval.
San Francisco is supposedly heating up in their pursuit of free agent 3B Chase Headley – to replace Sandoval.
Whether San Francisco’s pursuit of Headley would affect their interest – and financial ability – in pursuing Lester remains to be seen.
Where do you think Lester will end up?
The addition of free agent Hanley Ramirez (along with Pablo Sandoval) brought some much needed offense to the Red Sox line-up.
But Ramirez’ move to the left-field has also created a surplus in the outfield.
And given Boston’s needs in the pitching department, having some additional trade chips are most welcomed.
As of today, the Red Sox starting outfield looks like Ramirez, Rusney Castillo, and Yoenis Cespedes or Mookie Betts.
With Cespedes a free agent to be after the 2015 season, he could be on the trade block for pitching.
And the Red Sox have more chips to cash in, including:
- Shane Victorino – who recently proclaimed he is ready to retake Boston’s right-field starting job.
- Allen Craig – who is a huge question mark – both regarding the value he could bring to the Red Sox and what Craig could bring in a trade.
- Daniel Nava – a nice fifth outfielder – so probably more valuable to the Red Sox than what he could bring in a trade.
Teams that Need Outfielders
Here are some potential trade partners for the Red Sox should those teams look to move an outfielder.
Cincinnati. They need a left-fielder and they have a bunch of pitchers on pace to be free agents after the 2015 season – Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon. There could be a match-up here.
San Diego. The Padres are a wild card off-season team. They made a run at Sandoval, indicating they want to be players. The team needs hitting – and have attractive pitchers like Tyson Ross or Andrew Cashner to offer.
Cleveland. They are a contending team – maybe one outfield bat away from the playoffs. Maybe they would move a Danny Salazar or Trevor Bauer for an outfielder.
Detroit. This is an “all in” team, striving to win it all. A Rajai Davis, Anthony Gose and J.D. Martinez outfield doesn’t add up to a championship outfield. How about Rick Porcello for Cespedes?
Seattle. Seattle needs another bat to go with Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. A player like Craig could be a good fit because the Mariners need both an outfielder and a first baseman (roles Craig could play). And they have young pitching – like Taijuan Walker. Of course, Craig wouldn’t be enough to get Walker.
The Red Sox have re-shaped their team to boost the offense.
Hitting is in demand.
Boston is in position to convert this surplus into pitching.
The Blue Jays pulled off a major trade landing 3B Josh Donaldson from the Athletics for 3B Brett Lawrie and three minor leaguers.
It was a classic Oakland GM Billy Beane deal – coming out of nowhere (didn’t see any rumors about it before the trade was announced) and involved a marquee player.
Let’s look at the trade from the Red Sox perspective:
The Blue Jays
Combined with the recent signing of free agent catcher Russell Martin, Donaldson is an all-in move for the Blue Jays – a move similar to their Marlins trade of two years ago (which didn’t work too well for Toronto).
Donaldson can be a difference maker for Toronto. Buster Olney ranks him as MLB’s #1 third baseman (insider subscription) – with 53 HRs and 191 RBIs during the last two seasons.
Says Donaldson, “I’m going to venture to say there’s probably not going to be another lineup as potent as this in major league baseball.”
Pencil Toronto in as top AL East contenders.
Meaning the Red Sox goal of returning to the top of the division just got harder.
Got to think Red Sox GM Ben Cherington inquired about Donaldson before the Pablo Sandoval signing.
Sandoval has some advantages – he is younger and a switch-hitter (Boston needed another lefty base in its lineup). And he was a free agent (so the cost – besides money – was only a draft pick).
But over the past two seasons, Donaldson has been much stronger offensively and doesn’t hit free agency for four more years.
Donaldson was the better acquisition.
The pivotal player in the Blue Jays trade was Lawrie.
The Sox didn’t have a comparable major league proven third baseman.
Despite Lawrie’s injury-prone track record – he still rates as a better player than Will Middlebrooks.
However, the good news for Boston is a package of players can land a quality player like Donaldson.
And the Red Sox have a surplus of pitchers and outfielders that can help land a big player.
It appears Beane is remaking the Athletics.
So next to move on from Oakland could be starter Jeff Samardzija – set to be a free agent after the 2015 season.
The Red Sox are said to be among the teams talking to the A’s.
The starting pitcher market is crowded – with a number of free agents and other soon to be free agents out there. So the Samardzija trade market may take a well to form.
But note, with Jed Lowrie on the free agent market, Oakland is looking for a shortstop.
Someone like Red Sox SS prospect Deven Marrero could be a foundational piece in Boston landing Samardzija.
Anthony Castrovince picks out ten big name players who could be headed to the trade market.
Three to watch for the Red Sox:
- Cole Hamels. The Phillies lefty starter has got to be on the Red Sox shopping list – even if Jon Lester signs with Boston. The Sox need two top starters to front their rotation. Hamels will be costly but note, he is coming off a career-low 2.46 ERA in 30 starts. That kind of performance would look good on the Boston pitching staff.
- Jordan Zimmermann. If the Nationals are planning to move Zimmermann, the Red Sox need to check out his asking price. Would put him a peg lower than Hamels on the list because Zimmermann is a free agent after the 2015 season. But his numbers are dominating.
- Miguel Montero. The Red Sox are looking to beef up their left-handed hitting and Montero could team behind the plate with Christian Vazquez. The Diamondbacks may be looking to dump his salary (Montero has 3 years and $40 million remaining on his contract). This could present a buy-low option for Boston.
A Plan B candidate as a lefty hitting catcher may be Dioner Navarro.
Navarro is on tap to earn $5 million next season to back up newly signed free agent Russell Martin. That may be too much for Toronto to bear – so he could become available.
John Henry and Businessweek
Much has been written about Red Sox owner John Henry’s interview with Bloomberg Businesssweek where he declared, “teams continue to extravagantly overpay for players above the age of 30” – leading to questions about whether Boston would re-sign post-30 year old Jon Lester.
Well the story’s writer Joshua Green says, don’t read too much into what Henry said during that interview.
Green writes consider the context of Henry’s statement – the Red Sox were riding high as the World Series champs.
A last place finish in 2014 (making that two cellar performances in three years) most likely sent Henry and others in Boston’s front-office reexamining their team building.
And a proven winner like Lester would be sure to be valued.