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Archive for the ‘Andrew Miller’ Category

Red Sox and Justin Upton – Can it Happen?

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Justin Upton exercised the no trade clause in his contract to reject Arizona trading him to Seattle.

The rumored players heading from the Mariners were four young players: one of right-hander Taijuan Walker and lefties Danny Hultzen and James Paxton, plus infielder Nick Franklin, lefty Charlie Furbush, and right-hander Stephen Pryor.

Upton would look pretty good in the Red Sox line-up.

What would a comparable trade package from Boston look like?

With the understanding that Upton also has Boston on his no trade list. (Give him more money or extend his contract to change his mind.)

  • Walker. Matt Barnes, the Red Sox best pitching prospect, probably falls below Walker. If deal had Hultzen or Paxton, then Barnes is an equivalent.
  • Franklin. Red Sox comparables are probably either Jackie Bradley Jr. or Garin Cecchini (a third baseman who would fill an organizational need). (Shout out to John Sickels for his evaluations of the Seattle and Boston farm systems.)
  • Furbush. He is a decent reliever who does not reach free agency until 2018. That means Red Sox lefties Andrew Miller and Franklin Morales (both free agents in 2015) may not be seen as equal values. Felix Doubront (free agent in 2018) fits the mold – but is a better player than Furbush (he could balance the Walker/Barnes differential, if that was a trade component). Other possibilities among righties: Alfredo Aceves and Clayton Mortensen.
  • Pryor. He’s a young bullpen power arm. Maybe Daniel Bard is a fit. Junichi Tazawa is too much. Alex Wilson would be appealing to Boston if Arizona saw value in him. Or lefty Drake Britton.

So what’s a trade look like?

At its costliest – probably something like: Upton for Barnes, Cecchini, Doubront and Bard. That feels like too much for Boston.

Or maybe Boston can get Arizona to accept Miller or Morales in Doubront’s place.

Or an alternative: Upton for Barnes, Cecchini, Aceves (does he have value?) or Mortensen, and Britton. This probably feels “light” to Arizona.

This off-season, Boston GM Ben Cherington has been pretty clear about his non-interest in trading prospects.

However with an Upton trade, we are talking about a 25 year-old elite talent. Barnes is just three years younger – and has not yet pitched in the big leagues. Upton has been in the majors for six seasons.

Of course, Upton must have some warts (otherwise, why would Arizona even be thinking about trading him?).

But we are talking about a five-tool player who is under contract for three more years.

Should the Red Sox go after Upton? What do you think it would take to make the trade?

What’s Going Wrong with the Red Sox

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It’s not complicated. The Red Sox are second in the AL (fourth in MLB) in runs scored with 138.

And the bullpen has turned things around – as noted in a Tweet by Jeremy Lundblad: first 14 games: 8.44 ERA; last 12 games: 1.31 ERA.

Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard have been okay for number four and five starters.

The Red Sox woes revolve around the top three starters: Jon Lester (one win), Josh Beckett (two wins and complaining about shoulder woes) and Clay Buchholz (three wins but with an eight-plus ERA – great proof  point the Red Sox are scoring plenty of runs to win).

As written in this blog previously, the season revolves around the top three starters.

They deliver as expected – and as they are paid – and the Red Sox have a playoff team.

They don’t deliver – nothing else matters.

Aaron Cook, Andrew Miller and anyone else in the Red Sox farm system doesn’t matter.

Playoff teams need dependable, front-line pitching.

Time to step up, guys.

Red Sox Farm System Update

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Aaron Cook

All eyes are on Aaron Cook as the clock ticks towards his contract-mandated May 1 decision date on moving Cook up to the majors. The latest word is Boston pitching coach Bob McClure believes Cook can work out of the bullpen. Adding Cook to the bullpen adds depth – but Cook is untested in that role. The last time Cook relieved was 2003. But the move buys the Red Sox some time, keeping Cook in the organization and available for the rotation if a spot opens up. Look for Cook to be in the Sox ‘pen sometime next week.

Will Middlebrooks

Will Middlebrooks continues to be a beast – grabbing Prospect Watch Player of the Week from MLB.com and placing as the #1 prospect in this week’s Prospect Hot Sheet from Baseball America. Despite a red-hot start, Peter Abraham points out Kevin Youkilis is close to an immovable object right now in Fenway – having earned patience based on past performance and a big contract that other teams probably aren’t eager to take on. The Red Sox top issue is pitching not hitting, and that enables Boston to give Youkilis an opportunity to get going. Also, should the Sox want to move Youk, his value is low. The team is better off seeing if Youkilis can produce at the plate to build some trade value. Don’t expect a Middlebrooks call-up soon.

Bullpen Rehab

Alex Speier reports Andrew Miller has been looking pretty good in Pawtucket rehab assignments. But 11 walks in 7.3 innings just won’t cut it in the big leagues in my view. Look for Miller to be moving on soon. Speier also notes Mark Melancon is pitching pretty well. The issue with Melancon – his numbers are meaningless; they only matter if produced in higher pressure, big league situations. Should Melancon rebuild some value, the Red Sox should send him off to a team like Kansas City or back to Houston. I don’t see him back in Boston in any significant role.

Matt Barnes

The Matt Barnes legend grows. Earlier this week, Barnes was in a classic prospect matchup against Orioles farmhand Dylan Bundy – and both pitchers were dominant. Look for Barnes to move up to High A Salem soon.

How Red Sox Pitching Rotation is Shaping Up

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Let’s start a review of the Red Sox starting staff with the top three starters.

So far so good for Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz.

Coming into the spring, Buchholz was the big question – looking to rebound from his back woes of last season. Buchholz is looking good. But let’s keep watching as he extends himself deeper into games.

And remember, it was the end of season – not early on – where Lester and Beckett failed. In particular, Beckett, with his poor in-season conditioning, wore down in the stretch. I don’t think new manager Bobby Valentine will let Beckett balloon out of shape during the season. Boston needs more than 13 wins out of Beckett (his 2011 total) to be a playoff team.

Back-end of Rotation

You got to like what Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves have done in Spring Training to this point.

Bard is feeling good as a starter – albeit having only stretched out to three innings. And Aceves is a marvel on the mound.

The other contenders have not done anything to distinguish themselves.

  • Aaron Cook had a good outing today – but it was his first of the spring.
  • Felix Doubront and Vicente Padilla have been up and down.
  • Andrew Miller is battling a tender elbow.

Look for the #5 starter decision to be connected to the bullpen.

Alex Speier examined the Red Sox bullpen and sees only two spots set in stone – closer Andrew Bailey and set-up man Mark Melancon. And Tim Britton agrees.

Aceves may be just too valuable in front of Bailey and Melancon to move out of the bullpen.

Doubront and Miller are both out of options – and if they don’t make the big league club, the Red Sox will most likely lose them.

If one of them consistently puts together some quality outings in the last weeks of Spring Training, look for Doubront or Miller to start the season in the rotation – but with a short leash, having Aceves, Cook and loser in the Doubront/Miller battle ready to step in if needed.

Lastly, don’t discount Boston looking elsewhere for a starter.

The Red Sox are exploring the starter marketplace. Jim Bowden tweets they made an offer to the Nationals for John Lannan.

Figure Boston needs eight or more starters to get through the season. The Sox have depth – the question is whether it will turn out to be quality depth.

Top Boston Red Sox Blog Posts of the Week – August 27, 2011

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Andrew Miller’s Future. Alex Speier writes Andrew Miller has officially become a trustworthy starter option. The Red Sox are 9-1 in his 10 starts (the record speaks as much to Boston’s offense as Miller’s pitching). Look for Miller to be a power lefty arm in the bullpen during the playoffs – and in a position to win the fifth starter spot in 2012.

Varitek Still a Force. Forget about individual offensive numbers when assessing Jason Varitek’s season (even though they are okay for a backup catcher). Varitek has been – and still is – about the team and Sam Dykstra writes how Tek is still making an important contribution.

New Englanders in Majors. Mike Andrews documents New England-born players in the majors – with Cardinals P Chris Carpenter topping the list. Two Red Sox – Rich Hill and Dan Wheeler.

Draft Insights. Matt Huegel speaks with Red Sox director of amateur scouting Amiel Sawdaye about the latest crop of Red Sox prospects – just signed before the August 15 deadline.

What are your top Boston Red Sox blog posts picks for the week?

Written by Albie Jarvis

August 28, 2011 at 9:53 pm

Top Boston Red Sox Blog Posts of the Week – August 6, 2011

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Big Bedard Opener. Sam Dykstra recaps Erik Bedard’s Red Sox debut. Strong opening performance. Bedard stayed ahead of batters, didn’t walk anyone. With Clay Buchholz out indefinitely, Bedard needs to come up big for Boston. Buchholz is aiming for a return in the playoffs.

Miller Time Over? With Andrew Miller moving out of the rotation, Tim Britton wonders what will be Miller’s future role with the Red Sox. He asks is Miller trustworthy in the bullpen given his control issues. The Red Sox took a low-risk gamble on Miller and it looks like it is not paying off.

Yankee Insights. Britton spoke with Yankees beat reporter Marc Craig for a New York update. Craig likes Bartolo Colon over Freddy Garcia for the rest of the season. And Phil Hughes over Ivan Nova down the stretch.

Iglesias Update. Chris Mellen does a deep dive of Red Sox SS prospect Jose Iglesias. Strong defense, weak hitting is the Iglesias story to date. But remember, he is young and inexperienced in pro ball – a work in process. We’ll see if he develops at the plate to be a big leaguer.

What are your top Boston Red Sox blog posts picks for the week?

Top Boston Red Sox Blog Posts of the Week – July 16, 2011

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  • Big Papi over Ted? I like it – Gordon Edes took a gutsy stance saying David Ortiz is the greatest slugger in Red Sox history. The feedback got so hot that Edes felt compelled to pen a second post. No disrespect to Ted Williams – but I am with Gordo on this one.
  • Red Sox Prospect Projection. Christopher Hatfield walked through the Red Sox farm system and made SoxProspects.com projections on which farmhands will be added to Boston’s 40 man roster in the next off-season. 3B Will Middlebrooks and catchers Ryan Lavarnway and Tim Federowicz are picked as the sure-bets.
  • Sun Devil Reunion. Dodgers OF Andre Ethier expressed interest in playing with his good friend Dustin Pedroia sometime in their careers. They played together at Arizona State. With all the turmoil – and financial woes – in Los Angeles, maybe the Red Sox make that happen in the near future.
  • Doubront on Deck. After an injury filled spring, Felix Doubront has rounded into shape and is pitching well in Pawtucket. Look for Boston to have a short leash on Andrew Miller – and if he doesn’t show improvement soon, Doubront should be back with the Sox.

What are your top Boston Red Sox blog posts picks for the week?

Red Sox Prospects Update

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OF Bryce Brentz is having a breakout year – after hitting .198 Avg. in his professional debut last season with the Lowell Spinners. Brentz is tied for the Red Sox system HR lead with 19. Already promoted from Greenville to Salem, it will be interesting to see if Brentz earns some time with AA Portland this year.

Keith Law updated his top 50 MLB prospect list (subscription required). The only Red Sox prospect to make the list was Portland Sea Dogs 3B Will Middlebrooks (#42) – who enjoyed playing in the recent Futures Game. The Blue Jays had 4 players and Yankees and Rays each placed 3 prospects in the top 50.

Milton, Mass. native Alex Hassan is quietly having a breakout year in Portland – drawing comparisons to no less than Kevin Youkilis. I saw Hassan demonstrate his quick bat last night, ripping a 98 mph fastball for 1 of his 2 hits in the Eastern League All-Star game.

Last year’s top draft pick 3B Kolbin Vitek says he continues to make adjustments while adapting to playing every day in pro ball. At High-A Salem, Vitek is posting okay numbers – .272 Avg. with 10 SBs but not much pop, 1 HR, 26 RBIs.

Quick Hits

Red Sox – Blue Jays Series Notes

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  • Trading season is getting ready to kick into gear and Red Sox GM Theo Epstein said the team is more likely to acquire a position player than pitcher. Credit contributions from Andrew Miller and Alfredo Aceves with Felix Doubront and Kyle Weiland waiting in the wings at Pawtucket. A right-handed hitting RF would be a good addition. Someone like the Astros’ Hunter Pence.
  • Adrian Gonzalez was named AL player of the month for June. Gonzalez was a hitting machine last month, leading MLB with a .401 average (40-for-99) with 6 HRs and 25 RBIs. He follows David Ortiz who won the award in May. Any predictions on which Boston player stands to follow suit in July?
  • Speaking of hitting machines, Blue Jays Jose Bautista has not only not regressed from his 2010 power pace – when he slugged 54 HRs for the year – his overall numbers are stronger. Bautista’s contact rate is up from 80% to 82%. His fly-ball rate is down 8%, but Bautista has an increased line-drive rate and HR-to-fly-ball rate.
  • Alex Speier looked at Epstein’s free agent signing record – in light of the disappointing John Lackey and Mike Cameron performances. The record is not very good. According to Speier, only 3 players have delivered at least reasonable approximations of what they were signed to do (among the 12 players signed to deals of $10 million or more).
  • Travis Snider is back with the Blue Jays. He made adjustments in AAA Las Vegas and hit .333 Avg. with 29 RBIs and 25 extra-base hits. Las Vegas is a hitter’s park so it remains to be seen how his minor league success translates in The Show. In another minors note, Toronto star prospect Brett Lawrie is making progress in recovering from a hand injury but there is no timetable for a return.

Top Boston Red Sox Blog Posts of the Week – June 25, 2011

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Drew Declining. Alex Speier documented the hitting woes of J.D. Drew – such as Drew ranks in the bottom 20 percent of every offensive category for MLB OFs with at least 200 ABs. The emergence of Josh Reddick should increase pressure to cut Drew’s playing time. My vote: Think big – if the Astros put Hunter Pence on the trade market, go get him.

Lackey Lacking. Brian MacPherson called the dwindling number of “swings and misses” as a key factor in the poor performances of John Lackey. His stuff is not fooling anyone – and Lackey needs to fix this, not only to salvage the season but also for the next 3 seasons of his Boston contract.

Miller Time. Scott Lauber caught up with Andrew Miller’s former Marlins teammate – and current Padres OF – Cameron Maybin to discuss Miller’s road back to the majors. The Tigers sent Miller and Maybin to the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera trade. Think Florida would like a do-over?

Gammons Insights. Ryan Hannable recapped Peter Gammons latest conversation on WEEI. Some highlights – Gammons sees moving Adrian Gonzalez to outfield while the Red Sox are on the road in interleague play as too risky. Possible Red Sox trade targets: Cubs utility man Jeff Baker and Rockies OF Ryan Spilborghs. And Gammons said look for Miller to become a power lefty in the bullpen if the Red Sox make the post-season.

Farm Report. Chris Mellen profiled Pawtucket Red Sox C Ryan Lavarnway and Salem P Anthony Ranaudo. With Ryan Kalish on the mend, these are probably the top 2 Red Sox prospects playing. Lavarnway is solidifying himself as a MLB prospect – mostly likely as a backup catcher whose bat may warrant a look at DH. And Ranaudo continues to impress. Another good farm report post is Jon Meoli’s piece on how multiple Red Sox prospects have a history with Tommy John surgery.

What are your top Boston Red Sox blog posts picks for the week?

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