Archive for the ‘Red Sox Starting Pitchers’ Category
The Big Red Sox Question is Still Pitching
Recently, Bill James released his projections for 2013 player performance.
And because of his position with the Red Sox – James is a senior advisor of baseball operations – these projections have special meaning because they reflect (at least to some extent) what the front office is thinking.
That makes Jon Lester’s projection particularly interesting.
Lester’s projected numbers:
- 12 – 12; 3.71 ERA; 3.62 FIP
That’s not number one starter performance – not an anchor who can carry a team on his shoulders.
Let’s look at James’ projections for other AL East top starters (source: FanGraphs):
- David Price, Rays – 16 – 9; 3.13 ERA; 3.34 FIP
- CC Sabathia, Yankees – 16 – 10; 3.28 ERA; 3.16 FIP
- Josh Johnson, Blue Jays – 13 – 9; 3.21 ERA; 3.08 FIP
- R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays – 16 – 8; 3.58 ERA; 3.76 FIP
The top Orioles starters stack up even worse than Lester:
- Wei-Yin Chen, 10 – 11; 3.92 ERA; 4.35 FIP
- Jason Hammel, 8 – 10; 4.30 ERA; 4.06 FIP
These numbers don’t bode well for the Orioles returning to contender status. Figure Baltimore as a potential home for free agent Kyle Lohse or making some other pitching move.
Back to Lester and the Red Sox
Using James’ projections, the Red Sox view Lester as a .500 pitcher.
And James doesn’t see the rest of the starting staff much differently:
- Clay Buchholz, 12 – 11; 3.64 ERA; 4.01 FIP
- Ryan Dempster, 11 – 10; 3.74 ERA; 3.71 FIP
- John Lackey, 12 – 12; 4.05 ERA; 3.82 FIP
- Felix Doubront, 12 – 11; 3.70 ERA; 3.94 FIP
That’s a starting rotation that projects to deliver 59 wins and 56 losses. Meaning the team needs 23 wins from elsewhere to get over .500.
Doesn’t sound like a playoff contender.
Last season’s issues weren’t about scoring runs – the Red Sox were fifth in the American League in runs scored.
It was about pitching – particularly top of the rotation performance.
Boston manager John Farrell has his work cut out for him – getting Lester and Buchholz to deliver – season-long – at a high level.
Do you think Lester and Buchholz can return to form as top starters in 2013?
Red Sox Fact Finding
Red Sox principal owner John Henry and GM Ben Cherington joined the team in Seattle in what’s been described as a previously planned fact-finding trip.
First on the agenda was a breakfast meeting between Henry and manager Bobby Valentine – which Bobby V. survived with his job.
So what are some the “facts” Boston brass are likely to find?
- The current edition of the Red Sox stinks – 12 games under .500 going after today’s game. Fixing this team is not a tinkering project. It is rebuilding. The Red Sox need to recognize a quick fix with a few moves will not right the ship. And to overlook that point – with a few bandaid moves – will only delay any return to contention.
- Job one is starting pitching – with the highest priority being a number one starter. No one on the current staff is a top-tier starter. Potentially, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester can fill the number two and three starters – but based on 2012 performance, that’s not guaranteed. The most important off-season decision – after whether to fire Valentine – is: can the team land a number one starter via trade or free agency? If that’s not possible in the coming off-season – which is a real possibility – the Red Sox should not “force fit” someone (like a free agent to be Zack Greinke) into the spot. Better to wait a year to land the right pitcher.
- The next fact is Boston needs at least one more starter. Felix Doubront is promising but has been spotty. John Lackey is a question mark until he pitches in games. Franklin Morales looks like a reliever. Daisuke Matsuzaka will be gone once he hits free agency. And let’s try to forget that Aaron Cook ever pitched for the Red Sox (he will be out of our memory by this time next year). Find the next off-season’s Hiroki Kuroda – a solid veteran with a proven track record, okay with a one-year deal – and sign him.
- The kids are not alright. Will Middlebrooks was a Godsend but beyond him, there’s not much in the way of near-term help in the minors. Especially among starting pitchers. Pedro Ciriaco has been a big plus – current slump aside – but doesn’t project beyond a bench player. Jose Iglesias, Ryan Lavarnway and Ryan Kalish have not particularly distinguished themselves – I know: small sample sizes. But also, don’t read too much – good or bad – into September performances. The point – except for Middlebrooks, don’t expect much for the youth movement right away.
- And while we are talking Sox prospects – let’s suggest the team totally re-examines how it develops pitching. The only starting pitchers potentially close to the majors that Boston has are Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster. I do like Chris Carpenter – and maybe Alex Wilson and Josh Fields as possible bullpen contributors next season. Note: only Wilson is home grown. The Red Sox development machine needs to be cranked up in the pitching department.
- Offensively, the Red Sox are also a mess. The team already knows it has to invest in a big bat to replace Adrian Gonzalez. The two other major offensive decisions relate to David Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury. Big Papi is an all-time great Red Sox – but I would not go two years with him. Old players are more prone to breaking down – witness: Ortiz has been out one month-plus because he got hurt running the bases on a home run. One year, more than market money (like he got for 2012) that’s where I draw the line. And with Ellsbury – he is not a franchise player like his agent Scott Boras calls him. Two out of the last three years have been injury plagued where he missed large parts of the seasons. And while we are at it – where’s the power this year? If Ellsbury wants Carl Crawford money – move him this off-season.
These are a few of the “state of the state” facts that I see for Red Sox. What else would you add?
Albie Jarvis
